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There are 4,50,00,000 (Apprx) voters in Gujarat. This year there was 15% increased in voting. This will amount to

4,50,00,000X0.15=67,50,000 additional voters.

All this voters will be divided equally in all the constituencies.

67,50,000/26=2,59,615 additional votes casted in each constituencies.

If we assume 50% each rise in BJP and INC votes then seat tally will be same as last year which was BJP-15, INC-11. But if we assume Modi wave and voters want to change govt then above votes have to given weighting. Let say 60% to BJP and 40% to INC+AAP.

2,59,615X0.6=1,55,770

2,59,615X0.4=1,03,846

The difference is surplus votes to BJP. That is

1,55,770-1,03,846=51,924.

Now last LS election held in 2009. The constituencies which INC won with margin less than 51,924 will be definitely won by BJP this time because this is surplus votes to BJP this year. Let us see which are those constituencies.

Statistical Observations

It is clearly visible from colours.

  1. Blue coloured seats were last time won by INC.

  2. Green coloured boxes represents seats where BJP’s statistical surplus of this year exceeds the last years margin won by INC. These seats may convert to BJP this time. These are: Banaskantha, Patan, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Porbandar, Jamnagar, Kheda, Valsad.

  3. Red coloured boxes represents the seats where This year’s statistical surplus votes are less than the last time’s margin won by INC. This seats may remain with INC this time. These are Anand, Bardoli, Dahod.

  4. It is expected that BJP may win 23 seats and INC wins 3 seats in Gujarat.

PC No. PC Name Winner Party Vote Runner Up Party Vote Margin in 2009 Margin in 2014 2014-2009
1 Kutch Smt. Poonam Veljibhai Jat BJP 285300 Danicha Valjibhai Punamchandra INC 213957 71343 51924 123267
2 Banaskantha Mukeshkumar Bheiravdanji Gadhvi INC 289409 Chaudhary Haribhai BJP 279108 10301 51925 41624
By Polls (2013) Banaskantha Chaudhary Haribhai Parthibhai BJP 377988 Gadhvi Krishnaben Mukeshkumar INC 236011 141977 51926 193903
3 Patan Jagdish Thakor INC 283778 Rathod Bhavsinhbhai Dahyabhai BJP 265274 18504 51927 33423
4 Mehsana Smt. Jayshreeben Patel BJP 334631 Patel Jivabhai Ambalal INC 312766 21865 51928 73793
5 Sabarkantha Dr. Mahendrasinh Pruthvisinh Chauhan BJP 337432 Mistry Madhusudan INC 320272 17160 51929 69089
6 Gandhinagar Lal Krishna Advani BJP 434044 Patel Sureshkumar Chaturdas INC 312297 121747 51930 173677
7 Ahmedabad East Harin Pathak BJP 318846 Babaria Dipakbhai Ratilal INC 232790 86056 51931 137987
8 Ahmedabad West Dr. Kirit Premjibhai Solanki BJP 376823 Parmar Shailesh Manharlal INC 285696 91127 51932 143059
9 Surendranagar Somabhai Gandalal Koli Patel INC 247710 Mer Laljibhai Chaturbhai BJP 242879 4831 51933 47102
10 Rajkot Kunwarjibhai Mohanbhai Bavaliya INC 307553 Kirankumar Valjibhai Bhalodia (Patel) BJP 282818 24735 51934 27199
11 Porbandar Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai Radadiya INC 329436 Khachariya Mansukhbhai Shamjibhai BJP 289933 39503 51935 12432
By Polls (2013) Porbandar Radadiya Vithalbhai Hansrajbhai BJP 289893 Amipura Vinubhai Gordhanbhai INC 144370 145523 51936 197459
12 Jamnagar Vikrambhai Arjanbhai Maadam INC 281410 Mungra Rameshbhai Devraj Bhai BJP 254992 26418 51937 25519
13 Junagadh Dinubhai Boghabhai Solanki BJP 355335 Barad Jashubhai Dhanabhai INC 341576 13759 51938 38179
14 Amreli Naranbhai Kachhadia BJP 247666 Nilaben Virjibhai Thummar INC 210349 37317 51939 14622
15 Bhavnagar Rajendrasinh (Raju Rana) Rana BJP 213376 Gohilmahavirsinhbhagir Athsinh INC 207483 5893 51940 46047
16 Anand Bharatsinh Madhavsinh Solanki INC 348655 Patel Dipakbhai Chimanbhai BJP 281337 67318 51941 -15377
17 Kheda Dinsha J. Patel INC 284004 Chauhan Devusinh Jesingbhai BJP 283158 846 51942 51096
18 Panchmahal Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh Chauhan BJP 282079 Vaghela Shankarsinh Laxmansinh INC 279998 2081 51943 54024
19 Dahod Dr. (Smt.) Prabha Kishor Taviadi INC 250586 Damor Somjibhai Punjabhai BJP 192050 58536 51944 -6592
20 Vadodara Balkrishna Khanderao Shukla BJP 428833 Gaekwad Satyajitsinh Dulipsinh INC 292805 136028 51945 187973
21 Chhota Udaipur Ramsinh Patalyabhai Rathwa BJP 353534 Rathwa Naranbhai Jemlabhai INC 326536 26998 51946 78944
22 Bharuch Mansukhbhai D. Vasava BJP 311019 Umerji Ahmed Ugharatdar (Aziz Tankarvi) INC 283787 27232 51947 79179
23 Bardoli Dr. Tushar Amarsinh Chaudhary INC 398430 Vasava Riteshkumar Amarsinh BJP 339445 58985 51948 -7037
24 Surat Smt. Darshana Vikram Jardosh BJP 364947 Gajera Dhirubhai Haribhai INC 290149 74798 51949 126747
25 Navsari Chandrakant Raghunath Patil BJP 423413 Dhansukh Rajput INC 290770 132643 51950 184593
26 Valsad Kishanbhai Vestabhai Patel INC 357755 Patel Dhirubhai Chhaganbhai (Dr. D.C.Patel) BJP 350586 7169 51951 44782
27 Dadra And Nagar Haveli Natubhai Gomanbhai Patel BJP 51242 Delkar Mohanbhai Sanjibhai INC 50624 618 51951 52569
28 Daman And Diu Lalubhai Babubhai Patel BJP 44546 Dahyabhai Vallabhbhai Patel INC 19708 24838 51952 76790
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