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Lok Sabha 2014 results declared recently on 16th May, 2014. Let us look at some statistical comparision from 2009. From this statistics we can conclude following things. It is believed that INC became stronger and BJP became weaker in 2009. In my previous blog which I wrote on 30th January, 2014 I said this election will be about how you are fetching Hindu votes which are supporting INC. This thing has happened. Seat loss to INC is 162 and seat gain to BJP is 166. Statistically BJP is able to catch INC seats. Also total voting is 66% and BJP secured 31% vote share.

  1. BJP won more vote shares in Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP etc states, majoritily North Indian states. Also known as Hindi heartland states. (Yellow colour boxes)
  2. Congress vote share has reduced in almost all the states except Karnataka. (Light pink colour boxes). Biggest lost to congress was in UP, Andra Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Gujarat.
  3. Despite of no vote share difference in regional parties like SP, BSP etc they were unable to fetch seats as they obtained last time. These seats accounted to BJP. Probably BSP’s equation SC+Brahmin+Minority did not work. Brahmin might have voted to BJP.
  4. No significant vote share rise for TMC in WB but still it managed to fetch handsome seats. Communist (CPM+CPI) vote share reduced drastically which is fetched by BJP+TMC there.
  5. ADMK vote share and seat share both increased significantly. It emerged as strongest regional party.
  6. Overall, if we see then parties doesn’t have lost their base vote for ex. SP, BSP vote share is same.
  7. Congress’ traditional vote bank is SC+Minority. If we see overall picture then BJP has grabbed Congress votes significantly. It is very difficult to which either SC or Minorities voted for BJP.
  8. It is also possible that last time voting was 58% and this time it is 66%. The difference 8% votes benefited to BJP which is clearly visible from statistics.
  9. Probably due to voting awareness educated and elite class might have voted to BJP. There is consolidation of Hindu votes who used to vote for Congress. These votes voted to BJP this time.

NOTE: If you have difficulty in reading in pages you can open it here: LS 2014

References:

  1. http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=105116
  2. http://interstatecouncil.nic.in/downloads/GG1_Exercise_Franchise.pdf
  3. http://www.elections.in/parliamentary-constituencies/2009-election-results.html
  4. http://eciresults.nic.in/PartyWiseResultS01.htm?st=S01
  5. http://eci.nic.in/eci_main/archiveofge2009/Stats/VOLII/STATE_PARTYWISESEATWONANDVOTES_LokSabha2009_24012014.pdf
  6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009
  7. http://samaj.revues.org/2787
  8. http://www.pib.nic.in/elections2009/

LS 2014 Stats 2

LS 2014 Stats 3

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