Understanding Loksabha Election 2014
Election campaign majorly divided in two categories; High Track or Issue based and Low Track of Image based (also known as popularity based). INC was incubate party so from BJP point of view game is set as explained in below figure. It is sequential game; INC move first and BJP follow in response. There are four possible ways.
INC Issue Based and BJP Issue Based
INC was in power and it had some good points to show like MNREGA. Infact, many of BJP’s schemes looked carbon copy of UPA’s schemes. Only difference was UPA could not publicise while BJP is doing. On other hand, BJP was not in power and there was nothing to show. If INC would have publicised its schemes then it could have hard for BJP to compete.
Result: INC has chance in this case.
INC Issue Based and BJP Image Based
BJP could showcase INC scams. But showcasing other’s mistakes doesn’t mean yo are better than him/her, right? Also, fighting electins based on image requires to spread little amount of negativity which is risky because you don’t know voters will like it or not.
Result: BJP has chance to with but it is risky.
INC Image Based and BJP Image Based
Both rith5int on wqm3 lin3 43wul5int in only dirts being spread. Voters will hate it. They will think if both are dirty then what is wrong in voting current one? We don’t know BJP will work becasue they don’t have anything constructive to say.
Result: INC will have chance to win in this case.
INC Image Based and BJP Issue Based
INC is spreading dirt and BJP is talking about development. People may vote BJP if they see hope in BJP. BJP need to showcase their work and ideas in effective manner. BJP has to show vision to people.
Result: BJP has chance to win in this case.
The basic rule of game theory is “Look forward and reasoning back”. BJP can see that Case #2 and #4 has chances of its win. Out of these two, #4 is lesser risky. So, BJP point of view best game setup will be case #4. This is looking forward. But how can BJP force INC to play Image based election? BJP can’t tell INC to do so and INC would not like to be defeated? To get solutin of this you need to “Reason Back”. Ideally, BJP’s unimportant candidates should start negative campaign and that is how INC could lose its track and start negative campaign keeping issues aside. BJP need not to apply any trick to do it becasue INC started to generate filth on its own when Narendr Modi declared as PM candidate. This action forced INC to play image based politics. Not only INC but all parties started to generate filth against NM which easen BJP’s way. Now BJP had only two choices.
1. Play image based politics where INC has chance to win
2. Play issue based politics where people are seeing new hope and will have better chances to win.
Game setup for Bihar Assembly Elections 2015
Why Narendr Modi is doing negative campaign in Bihar election? Doesn’t he know people won’t like it? Answer is simple. He wants Nitish to take lower track i.e. Image based politics. Narendr Modi will slowly take higher track i.e. Issue based politics where BJP will have chance to win. BJP should promote Manjhi, if not CM then at least for some key post. There are following benefits.
- Dalit vote share in Bihar is approximately 20% and it is significant.
- BJP’s core political agenda is development. This will give message to voters that BJP wants ‘development’ of ‘Dalits’. It will give message that BJP want to empower Dalits.
- This will give message to voters that every one are with BJP irrespective of upper cast or lower cast and BJP wants everyone together.
- Showing union of upper and lower cast both, it will give message that all the Hindus are united.
In-fact, BJP has already implemented this strategy of promoting Dalits. Ramprasad Kovid, a person from Mahadalit community is appointed as governor of Bihar. It looks BJP want to follow the strategy of promoting ‘development’ of Dalits and unification of Hindus. Of course, if Mahadalit is appointed as governor then obviously the CM may be from upper cast.
Strategy for Future: Loksabha 2019
Well, this time BJP will be in power and it will be better for it to take first step. That should be high track or issue based politics. Why it is favourable? Because being in power BJP may have done some good work and they can publicise it. In this case INC is left with two choices; Issue based and Image based. INC can not play issue based because they may not have done work due to not being in power. Also, INC govt in lesser states so no hope for future work. In this way INC is left with only one option, play image based politics. INC can win only when brings new face to politics which will improve party’s image. Probably INC may bring Priyanka Vadra in to politics. Of course, BJP already have solution to this. Robert Vadra files have not opened yet. Opening of his files are is sufficient to tar Priyanka’s image and there is advantage for BJP.