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In previous post I explained strategy of political parties in elections. In this post I will try to explain what should be the election agenda so that voters will trust you. Before proceeding further let me explain questions raised by few of friends. The diagrams I shared had only equal probabilities which doesn’t give you decision which plan to opt.

What risk BJP is playing in Bihar Assembly Election 2015?

Well, that is where leadership comes in to picture. Unlike other sciences, politics is purely ‘Risk on Thumb Rule’ science. No one can say confidently that people will vote in this way, but they may predict that people may vote in this way if provided set of things. It entirely depends on leader how he understands people’s mind and promises what they want. In last mail I wrote that BJP has chance to win if Path 4 is executed. Let me write it here again for you.

INC Image Based and BJP Issue Based

INC is spreading dirt and BJP is talking about development. People may vote BJP if they see hope in BJP. BJP need to showcase their work and ideas in effective manner. BJP has to show vision to people.

Result: BJP has chance to win in this case.

And it actually happened in that way. In LS2014 it was clearly “Narendr Modi (NM) verses Others Game” because he was PM candidate. But, in Bihar he can not contest as CM though according to Path 4 it is preferable to set game “NM verses Other Game”! This is where BJP is playing biggest gamble: Don’t declare CM candidate for Bihar election. Now in absence of any CM candidate the opposition obviously target NM. This is how NM transformed the game in to “Him verses Other Game” instead of “CM(or BJP) verses Others Game”. There are some advantages in not declaring CM candidate.

  1. Game can be set in “NM verses Others Game” mode which will help BJP in bringing opposition to opt lower track (i.e. image based, Path 4).

  2. If CM candidate from upper caste is declared then Dalits may divided. But in absence of any CM candidate Dalits may think “We have chance of Dalit leader (Manjhi) becoming CM. Lets vote BJP”.

  3. Vice versa can be think of if CM candidate declared is from lower cast.

I think this is what BJP did in other state assembly elections and it was successful plan. That is why I strongly believe that NM will become bigger and bigger as you throw more salvo on him because according to Path 4 people won’t like such nonsense.

How to improve winning probability?

Well, as my mentioned above many of my friends raised question that chart shows only equal probabilities which doesn’t give any decision. No one can surely say this should be done to win election. However, they may suggest some possible ways which can be approached. BJP can increase its winning probability in following phases.

  1. Don’t declare CM candidate and convert game in to “NM verses Others Game” bringing opposition to opt lower track, 100% for that path. Now BJP has 50% each chance to opt for Image based or Issue based path. BJP’s probability for these two paths is increased to 50% each from 25% each previously (Refer figures in previous mail).

  2. In next phase, set agenda in such a way that voters will see hope in you. If it swings probabilities by atleast 1% i.e. 51-49% then also you have decision there.

  3. Candidate selection is another factor which improves your probability of win. Unlike other states, cast leaders are most important in Bihar. There you have to select local cast leaders. This may also improve your probability of win.

  4. If you properly plan each phases then you may end up with win-loss probability to somewhere 60-40% which is decent figure.

How to Design Election Agenda

As you know, study of human psychology has been my favourite interest. I like to understand them. Human wants some things in their conscious mind

  1. Comfort

  2. Progress/Development

  3. Security

If you are observing closely then you will realise these are the things which citizen expect from government. For example;

  1. People like clean roads, pure water, sanitation, car, TV etc. These issues related to infrastructure and luxury are basically comfort issues.

  2. People like to have ample jobs, business opportunity, strong economy, money liquidity, scientific/technological development etc. These are basically developmental/progress issues.

  3. People like to have proper police protection, security from terrorism, bank security, legal protection. These things are related to security issues.

I visited USA in Oct 2013 and I observed the government policies there are focused on these issues. I saw many policemen on road compared to we find in India. After 9/11 Homeland Department made it compulsory to give biometric data if you want to enter USA. At the immigration check itself everyone has to give his/her biometric data so that police can trace you if you commit crime. Govt gives importance to security there. The other things about infrastructure, scientific progress etc you may be aware with in USA. I also visited Germany, France, and Switzerland countries in Oct 2014. The govt there focuses on social security. Pension for unemployed etc are key features.

Human desires and Election agenda

A leader is the person who understands what people needs and what need to be spent to fulfill their desires. Narendr Modi knows the nerves of people and set the election agenda. Some people will say he alone did not set agenda but there was a team. But team selection also requires some mastery over human understanding. You can not put anyone as your adviser. Basic principal of administration is to have right person at right place. Otherwise leader may end up in a situation similar to Rahul Gandhi. I surprise who writes his speeches ?. Anyway coming back to agenda: sanitation, jobs, investment, curbing terrorism etc were the agenda of BJP govt which are basically comfort, progress, and security issues respectively. There was something for everyone in BJP’s agenda.

  • Toilets in houses, smart cities (Comfrot issue)

  • Development for liberals (development issue).

  • Industry and business establishment (progress issue)

  • Ram Mandir for Hindus or Uniform Civil Code for progressive Muslims.

  • Article 370 for intellectuals

  • Women empowerment to attract 50% of the voters.

  • Control on illegal migration from Bangladesh, and stronger foreign policy with Pakistan and China (Security issue).

People voted BJP because they saw hope in NM and NM knew what people want and agenda set accordingly.

Commentary

I read somewhere “Every person has price to be purchased”. Why it is said so? It is logical, through money a person can buy luxuries, security bonds, personal body guards. Money is all-in-one item which can buy all these requirements. That is why money is common weakness for many people.

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